ICAO forecasts suggest 1.2 billion fewer travellers by September 2020

According to the latest forecasts from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), international air passenger totals could drop by as much as 1.2 billion travellers by September 2020, when compared to a business-as-usual situation, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ICAO’s estimates also outline that international capacity could drop by as much as two-thirds from what had been forecast prior to the coronavirus outbreak for the first three quarters of 2020, leading airline revenues to drop by as much $160 to $253 billion for the January to September 2020 period.

Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will be hit the hardest by the capacity and revenue impacts, followed by North America. Similarly, the most substantial reduction in passenger numbers is expected to be in Europe, especially during its peak summer travel season, followed by Asia-Pacific.

The United Nation’s (UN) civil aviation agency has been providing regularly updated analyses on the economic impact of COVID-19 on air transport since early February 2020. Due to air connectivity being so critical to economic and sustainable development in every world region, this information is of critical importance to the many national governments and regional organisations that are now planning for their COVID-19 economic recoveries.

In a message to representatives of ICAO’s member states, ICAO Secretary General, Dr. Fang Liu, said: “As the overall severity and duration of the pandemic is still uncertain, ICAO has developed six different recovery paths under two indicative scenarios to explore the potential short-term economic implication of the COVID-19 pandemic.”