Predicting the future

World aviation growth for 2012 will exceed present forecasts! Aviation is on a roll in the US. We have lift off! At last, the US Federal Government, the aviation industry and aviation interest groups are pulling together to build a more efficient national and international airspace system.

Of course, where the rubber hits the road, the airport runways, are paramount to success of any global air transport system. The new Next Generation (Nex Gen) Air Traffic Control system will help immeasurably in improving efficiency and capacity. And dramatic new improved weather reporting should be available in the future at all international airports. It is my opinion that the US Federal Aviation Administration Airports Office has done a great job and I am sure that the ‘stellar cadre’ of FAA Airport Experts will ensure success in these future endeavours.

Periods of congestion and gridlock will continue to be problematic at airports in the US, particularly in the Northeast corridor and the West coast mega-populated areas. Present aircraft arrivals and departure procedures at airports in those areas are working now. However, much more is needed, particularly for new airports to relieve congestion and gridlock. Safety is paramount with present fixes (artificial constraints) will not prepare the world air transport system for the future, therefore new global strategic planning is needed. Aeronautical engineers will design and build quieter, more efficient airlines in the future to handle the environmental concerns. Additionally, airport management has made major strides in im – proving airport operations both on the landside and airside.

Airline mergers and alliances will continue around the globe. Even with all the debate regarding the changing of the US Federal law relating to the foreign ownership of US air carriers, the future growth and dramatic demand of air travel in the US will continue. Whether the airlines be US owned, or foreign or a combination of both, airline services will always be available and the number of carriers will increase by 12 per cent by 2022.

Recent news from Boeing has been favourable for present and for future production of US airliners. Even sophisticated corporate and general aviation aircraft production will increase in sales and demand. We can expect 800 to 1,000 passenger airliners within six years and supersonic airline flights within the five to six years.

Hang on to your hat! Within six years, the present archaic airliner speeds of 500 to 600 miles-per-hour will be a thing of the past (at long last!) and we will see an increase in airliner speed to Mach 1 and 2 plus. Kudos indeed, to advanced hypersonic aeronautical engineers. NASA’s efforts in the past to increase civil aircraft speeds will soon be achieved. For example; Lockheed Martin’s research in the 1990s with the hypersonic X-33 will have finally paid off. I predict we will see advance airliner speeds of Mach 3 by 2020 or sooner. Intercontinental destination distances will be cut in half or more. Commercial intercontinental orbit flights will be available by 2022.

Finally, aviation needs to do more to invite young university, technical school graduates and former qualified military personnel into the aviation industry. During the last century the industry had no problems obtaining personnel. Today is different as there is more competition for talented people in many industries. The final report of the Commission on the future of the US Aerospace Industry, summed this up by stating: “The Aerospace industry holds a promise for the future, by kindling a passion within our youth that beckons them to reach for the stars and thereby assures our nation’s destiny.”

About the author

Bill Shea is a national and international aviation expert. His former positions include Associate Administrator for Airports at the FAA as well as advocate for the National System of Airports. He has published numerous aviation articles, two books and a memoir.