Eurocontrol’s publication on aviation data show flight and economic trends grow

Credit: Eurocontrol

Eurocontrol, the civil-military organisation dedicated to supporting European aviation, has released data on its ‘Seven-Year Forecast’. The publication incorporates the latest flight trends and route patterns (including summer 2024). It also includes a partial update of forecast inputs, such as the GDP forecast.

What were the flight trends?

• During the start of summer 2024, actual traffic levels were stronger than expected, aligning more closely with our high forecast from February 2024
• Between April and June, actual traffic figures were higher than the base scenario of the February 2024 forecast.
• Increased demand for travel, particularly for leisure and tourism, has led to higher than expected flight numbers across Europe, especially in Southern and Eastern regions.
• From July onwards, actual traffic figures were in line with the base scenario of the February 2024 forecast.

What were the overflight trends?

• Southeast States with additional traffic on flows to Asia and Middle-East, impacted by airspace closures and flight bans since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. Russian traffic bringing increase in overflights in the Baltic region
• The conflict in Israel and Gaza led to a volatile situation in terms of airspace and routes availability in the region throughout the last 12 months
• Overflights in the South Caucasus States have been particularly affected by the above-mentioned events
• Airline route choices influenced by constrained airspaces in central Europe throughout the summer. This led to a shift to the west of the Southeast bound flows, with notable increases in Italy, Switzerland and western Balkan States

Was there any economic growth?

• The upward revision in the GDP forecast for 2024 reflects a more positive economic environment than initially expected. This improvement supports higher consumer spending, including for air travel, driving the revision of the flight forecast upwards
• Stronger-than-expected economic recovery, especially in South and East Europe, has resulted in increased air traffic demand
• While the 2024 GDP forecast has been revised significantly upwards, projections for 2025-2030 remain stable compared to previous estimates. However, the high level of uncertainty surrounding inflation, fuel prices, and global economic conditions could still impact future growth

Check out more data here.